Greek Real Estate Investment Venture: Feasibility Study

2.1 From crash to recovery

Greek apartment prices peaked in Q3 2008 (index 102.2, 2007 = 100) and fell for nine years to Q3 2017 (58.9), a fall of −42.4%². Recovery began in 2018 and gathered pace: +7.2% in 2019, +11.9% in 2022, +13.9% in 2023, +9.1% in 2024 and +8.3% in 2025^1,2. In Q2 2026 prices were still rising, by +5.5% year on year nationally and +5.0% in Athens. Price growth is clearly slowing¹.

Note on the figures: the annual percentage changes are the official Bank of Greece rates, which the Bank computes from unrounded data. Recomputing them from the rounded index levels in the chart can give a difference of ±0.1 percentage point (for example 2022 and 2023).

Sources:^2,1

Honest note: in real (inflation-adjusted) terms prices are still below their 2008 level. The fast gains of 2022–23 are not expected to repeat. The Bank of Greece describes the outlook as "cautiously positive"¹².

2.2 Athens is still cheap compared with other European cities

Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Mapping the World's Prices 2026, via Euronews, 30 Aug 2026⁴. Athens is 62.1% below the 28-city average. Local portal data agree: homes up to 80 m² in the xe.gr "Athens" area had an average asking price of €3,087/m² in Q3 2026 (+10.2% y/y)³.

2.3 A stronger economy

• Investment grade regained in 2023: Scope (Aug), DBRS (Sep), S&P (20 Oct) and Fitch (Dec 2023); Moody's followed on 14 Mar 2025^7,8,9.
• Growth above the euro area: real GDP +2.0% (2023), +2.1% (2024), +2.1% (2025), against +0.4%, +1.3% and +1.2% for the euro area⁵.
• Debt falling fast: from 209.4% of GDP (2020) to 145.4% (2025). It is still high, but it is the fastest reduction in the EU⁶.

2.4 Record tourism

• 2025: 43.3 million inbound visitors (including 5.3m cruise passengers) and €23.6 bn travel receipts (+9.4%), both records^10,11.
• Excluding cruise: 38.0m arrivals and €22.6bn receipts, against 31.3m and €17.7bn in 2019¹¹.

2.5 Foreign demand

• Net foreign direct investment in Greek real estate (Bank of Greece data; 2019–2022 as reported by the Greek press) rose from €1,449m in 2019¹³ to a record €2,750.3m in 2024 (+28.9%)^15,12, then fell to €2,055.6m in 2025 (−25.3%)¹². The pandemic year 2020 saw €874.9m¹⁴; 2021 €1,176m and 2022 €1,975m¹³.
• Golden Visa applications: 8,426 (2023)¹⁵ and 9,387 (2024), then 7,031 in 2025 (−25.1%) after the thresholds were raised¹². The 2024 figure is the revised figure in the Bank of Greece Annual Report 2025.

Honest note: foreign demand is still large but has cooled since the 2024 rule changes. Our model does not assume that it returns to its 2024 peak.

2.6 Large projects reshaping Athens

• The Ellinikon (former airport, southern coast) is one of Europe's largest urban regeneration projects. It is now in its delivery phase, with about €1.27bn of cumulative capex in buildings and infrastructure¹⁶. Greece's first skyscraper, the 200 m Riviera Tower, has reached full height¹⁷. All 315 coastal-front homes are sold¹⁶.
• Metro Line 4 (section A, Alsos Veikou–Goudi): 12.8 km and 15 underground stations¹⁹. Completion has slipped to 2032¹⁸, so it will not help a 2027–29 pilot.
• Piraeus: a record of about 1.85 million cruise passengers in 2025²⁰. Container throughput at the COSCO terminal fell about 6% to 3.98m TEU²⁰.

2.7 The Golden Visa: why conversions are the accessible entry

Since Law 5100/2024, a standard Golden Visa in Attica (including Athens and Piraeus), Thessaloniki, Mykonos, Santorini and islands with more than 3,100 residents needs €800,000 for a single property of at least 120 m². Elsewhere the minimum is €400,000^21,23. The €250,000 threshold survives for properties converted from non-residential to residential use. No minimum size applies, but the change of use must be legally completed after 5 Apr 2024 and before the buyer applies^21,22,24. As a result, converted units in central Athens are the only way into the Athens Golden Visa market at about a third of the standard price. This is the niche option C targets.

Important rules:

• The €250k benefit applies to a converted property only once. A later buyer of the same unit cannot use the €250k route again²².
• GV properties cannot be let short-term (Airbnb-type platforms). Long-term letting is allowed^22,23.
• Listed-building restoration is a second €250k route. We exclude it by policy (see section 4).

2.8 What could change (read this box carefully)

2.9 The supply gap: how long will strong demand for new housing last?

The facts

• Building collapsed. Dwellings in new residential building permits fell from 174,400 (2005) to 5,500 (2015). They recovered only to 41,700 (2024) and 31,900 (2025)²⁸. The census shows 915,138 dwellings built in 2001–2010 (about 91.5k a year) but only 173,624 in 2011–2021²⁹.
• Two different measures: permits (Eurostat) count dwellings authorised in a year; the census counts dwellings standing in 2021 by the period in which they were built. They are shown together for scale only. All gap calculations below use the Eurostat permit series (2005–2025), lagged two years.
• The stock is old. 51.3% of Greece's 6,596,761 dwellings (and 53.5% in Attica) were built before 1981. Only 2.6% (Attica 2.2%) were built in 2011–2021²⁹. (8 dwellings nationally and 6 in Attica are not allocated to a period.)
• Independent estimates agree there is a gap. Piraeus Bank estimates a shortage of about 212,000 dwellings built up in 2012–2021 alone³⁰. NBG estimated excess demand of about 30,000 dwellings a year in 2023–24³¹. Both use their own estimates of construction, not the Eurostat series, so they are independent cross-checks rather than inputs. The IMF notes labour and capacity constraints that limit how fast building can grow³².
• Honest counterpoint: the 2021 census also counted 2.28 million unoccupied dwellings (34.5%; Attica 24.3%)²⁹. Many are holiday homes, village houses or buildings in poor condition. Some can return to the market, so our model includes a "vacant-home reactivation" scenario.

The model (transparent; all calculations in this study's financial model)

Step 1 – completions. Completions in year t are taken as dwellings permitted in year t−2^A1. This proxy matches the census well: 178.1k permitted in 2009–2019 against 173.6k actually built in 2011–2021 (ratio 0.97). Completions 2010–2025 total 335.9k.

Step 2 – annual need = household formation + replacement of obsolete stock + non-resident / second-home / short-term-rental demand^A2:

Step 3 – formula. Cumulative shortfall (2010–2025) = Σ (annual need − completions) = 16 × need − 335.9k

The central estimate is consistent with Piraeus Bank's 212k for 2012–2021 alone³⁰.

Step 4 – years to close the gap. Year by year from 1 Jan 2026: shortfall + need − completions − vacant reactivation. Completions in 2026 and 2027 are fixed by the permits already issued in 2024 and 2025 (41.7k and 31.9k); the scenario build rate applies from 2028. The same calculation drives the projection chart.

What this means for investors: our pilot lasts about 30 months. Even in the most optimistic case, the shortage outlasts it. However, a national housing shortage does not by itself guarantee demand for €250k Golden Visa units, which depends mainly on foreign buyers and the GV rules (section 8).

1. Start with one pilot project under option C. Choose a whole commercial building in central Athens or Piraeus, with a peak equity need of about €2.40m–€2.98m.
2. Set clear go/no-go conditions before signing: purchase price ≤ about €1,170,000 for a building like the worked example; a fixed-price conversion contract ≤ about €1,100/m² (excl. VAT); due diligence passed; and a clear view of the final 2027 transfer-tax law.
3. Keep A and B open as opportunistic deals only when the discount clearly covers costs and risk (as a guide, ≥15% for B).
4. Expand after delivery: use the pilot's audited results to decide on project 2.

7.1 Key assumptions

• Purchase: €1,200,000 (lowest asking price) + transfer tax 3.09% + about 2% notary, lawyer and land registry costs, + €25,000 due diligence.
• Units: 13 apartments of about 58 m² gross each (755 m² above ground ÷ 13). The 85 m² basement becomes storage and technical rooms.
• Conversion cost: €1,100/m² above ground and €500/m² in the basement, excl. VAT^A3. Athens architects quote €700–1,200/m² for a full renovation and €1,200–1,600+/m² for design-led work, excl. VAT and design costs³³. A conversion also needs new MEP throughout, 13 kitchens and bathrooms, and an energy upgrade.
• VAT 24% on works is treated as a cost (non-recoverable)^A4. Because contingency (12%) and project management (4%) are calculated on works including VAT, the full VAT impact is €209,520 VAT itself + €33,523 on contingency and project management = €243,043 of extra cost before tax, or €180,095 less net profit to investors. If a tax adviser confirmed that all of it could be recovered, net profit would be €566,769 (ROI 23.2%, IRR 15.5%). This is not assumed.
• Studies and permits 9% of works excl. VAT; contingency 12% and project management and independent site supervision 4%, both of works incl. VAT.
• Sales: 13 × €255,000 average (every unit ≥ €250k for the GV); marketing and sales costs 2% of revenue; €1,500 per unit for certificates and sale documents.
• Company costs: IKE accounting, audit, legal and bank €2,000/month for the whole 30 months; ENFIA, insurance and utilities €1,000/month from acquisition (month 3) to the end (27 months)^A6.
• Tax: Greek corporate tax 22% on profit; 5% withholding on dividends³⁵. Funded 100% by equity, with no bank debt.
• Timeline (base): due diligence months 0–3 → permits 3–9 → works 9–21 → completion and legal change of use 21–23 → final sale contracts months 22–29 → tax and distribution month 30: 30 months in total^A5.

7.2 Is €250,000 for a ~58 m² unit realistic? (honest check)

€250,000 ÷ 58 m² = €4,310/m², and our €255,000 average = €4,397/m².

• An operating Golden Visa conversion project in Metaxourgeio is asking €3,776–5,198/m², including a 57.3 m² unit at €250,000 (€4,363/m²)³⁴.
• The ordinary local market is much lower: the xe.gr Athens average is €3,087/m² (≤80 m², Q3 2026), and Spitogatos's Athens-centre average is €2,439/m² (Q3 2025)³.

Conclusion: €250–265k per unit is realistic only as a Golden Visa product, which commands a premium of about 42% over the xe.gr local average. Units must be designed so that each one justifies ≥€250k: sensible sizes (around 50–65 m²), quality finishes and good light. Very small units (≈40 m²) at €250k (€6,250/m²) would be hard to sell. Without the Golden Visa, the same units would sell at about €3,000–3,300/m², and the project would lose money (section 8).

7.3 Indicative P&L (base case, from this study's financial model)

Indicative. All property prices, costs and projections shown here are indicative, subject to full due diligence, and may change.

The cash-flow chart and this table come from the same monthly calculation: the final cumulative cash position in month 30 equals the net profit of €386,674, and the lowest point equals the peak equity.

Base case: €386,674 net profit on €2,683,373 equity · 14.4% ROI · 10.1% IRR over 30 months.

An earlier internal estimate for a larger generic project (about €3.19m cost, €5.25m GDV, about €1.14m net) does not apply to this building. The figures above were recomputed from scratch.

Upside not included: the ~210 m² of unused building rights could add about 3 units, but only if the rights are legally confirmed after Council of State decision 146/2025 and the 1960s structure can carry them. Pre-sales with deposits during construction would also reduce the equity needed and raise the IRR.

7.4 Options A and B for comparison (indicative)

Total: 30 months in the base case, 27 months in the good case and 42 months in the bad case.

Team: partner civil/structural engineers and architect · Greek property lawyer · chartered auditor (ορκωτός ελεγκτής) · tax adviser · Paschalis Filios coordinating.

Checklist (all items must be cleared before purchase):

1. Title: full title search (land registry / Hellenic Cadastre), chain of ownership, seller's authority, and any co-owner or inheritance issues.
2. Zoning and land use: residential use permitted in the zone; local land-use decree; building coefficient and remaining building rights (legally confirmed). Confirm the building is not listed or preserved and not in a restricted heritage zone (important in Metaxourgeio).
3. Building permits and illegal works: original permit and plans match the building; any illegal or arbitrary works identified and legalised (or legalisable) at a known cost.
4. Structure: survey of the 1960s–1980s frame; seismic assessment; core tests where needed; cost of any strengthening.
5. Change-of-use feasibility: confirm that the architectural layout meets residential rules (light, ventilation, heights, fire escape, lift). Map the path and timetable for the change-of-use permit and the engineer's certificate that the GV buyer will need.
6. Energy: current energy certificate; upgrade path to a modern class; MEP condition.
7. Encumbrances: mortgages, seizures, leases (vacant possession), easements, litigation.
8. Taxes and dues: ENFIA and municipal dues paid; no tax liens; tax certificates for the transfer; objective value.
9. Financials: fixed-price builder offers (at least 2–3), builder references, insurance, performance guarantees; the auditor's review of the budget.
10. Market check: comparable GV conversion prices and a sales plan; buyer demand after the 2027 transfer-tax law.