Greek Real Estate Investment Venture: Feasibility Study

2.1 From crash to recovery

Greek apartment prices peaked in Q3 2008 (index 102.2, 2007 = 100) and fell for nine years to Q3 2017 (58.9), a fall of −42.4%². Recovery began in 2018 and gathered pace: +7.2% in 2019, +11.9% in 2022, +13.9% in 2023, +9.1% in 2024 and +8.3% in 2025^1,2. In Q2 2026 prices were still rising, by +5.5% year on year nationally and +5.0% in Athens. Price growth is clearly slowing¹.

Note on the figures: the annual percentage changes are the official Bank of Greece rates, which the Bank computes from unrounded data. Recomputing them from the rounded index levels in the chart can give a difference of ±0.1 percentage point (for example 2022 and 2023).

Sources:^2,1

Honest note: in real (inflation-adjusted) terms prices are still below their 2008 level. The fast gains of 2022–23 are not expected to repeat. The Bank of Greece describes the outlook as "cautiously positive"¹².

2.2 Athens is still cheap compared with other European cities

Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Mapping the World's Prices 2026, via Euronews, 30 Aug 2026⁴. Athens is 62.1% below the 28-city average. Local portal data agree: homes up to 80 m² in the xe.gr "Athens" area had an average asking price of €3,087/m² in Q3 2026 (+10.2% y/y)³.

2.3 A stronger economy

• Investment grade regained in 2023: Scope (Aug), DBRS (Sep), S&P (20 Oct) and Fitch (Dec 2023); Moody's followed on 14 Mar 2025^7,8,9.
• Growth above the euro area: real GDP +2.0% (2023), +2.1% (2024), +2.1% (2025), against +0.4%, +1.3% and +1.2% for the euro area⁵.
• Debt falling fast: from 209.4% of GDP (2020) to 145.4% (2025). It is still high, but it is the fastest reduction in the EU⁶.

2.4 Record tourism

• 2025: 43.3 million inbound visitors (including 5.3m cruise passengers) and €23.6 bn travel receipts (+9.4%), both records^10,11.
• Excluding cruise: 38.0m arrivals and €22.6bn receipts, against 31.3m and €17.7bn in 2019¹¹.

2.5 Foreign demand

• Net foreign direct investment in Greek real estate (Bank of Greece data; 2019–2022 as reported by the Greek press) rose from €1,449m in 2019¹³ to a record €2,750.3m in 2024 (+28.9%)^15,12, then fell to €2,055.6m in 2025 (−25.3%)¹². The pandemic year 2020 saw €874.9m¹⁴; 2021 €1,176m and 2022 €1,975m¹³.
• Golden Visa applications: 8,426 (2023)¹⁵ and 9,387 (2024), then 7,031 in 2025 (−25.1%) after the thresholds were raised¹². The 2024 figure is the revised figure in the Bank of Greece Annual Report 2025.

Honest note: foreign demand is still large but has cooled since the 2024 rule changes. Our model does not assume that it returns to its 2024 peak.

2.6 Large projects reshaping Athens

• The Ellinikon (former airport, southern coast) is one of Europe's largest urban regeneration projects. It is now in its delivery phase, with about €1.27bn of cumulative capex in buildings and infrastructure¹⁶. Greece's first skyscraper, the 200 m Riviera Tower, has reached full height¹⁷. All 315 coastal-front homes are sold¹⁶.
• Metro Line 4 (section A, Alsos Veikou–Goudi): 12.8 km and 15 underground stations¹⁹. Completion has slipped to 2032¹⁸, so it will not help a 2027–29 pilot.
• Piraeus: a record of about 1.85 million cruise passengers in 2025²⁰. Container throughput at the COSCO terminal fell about 6% to 3.98m TEU²⁰.

2.7 The Golden Visa: why conversions are the accessible entry

Since Law 5100/2024, a standard Golden Visa in Attica (including Athens and Piraeus), Thessaloniki, Mykonos, Santorini and islands with more than 3,100 residents needs €800,000 for a single property of at least 120 m². Elsewhere the minimum is €400,000^21,23. The €250,000 threshold survives for properties converted from non-residential to residential use. No minimum size applies, but the change of use must be legally completed after 5 Apr 2024 and before the buyer applies^21,22,24. As a result, converted units in central Athens are the only way into the Athens Golden Visa market at about a third of the standard price. This is the niche our conversion project targets.

Important rules:

• The €250k benefit applies to a converted property only once. A later buyer of the same unit cannot use the €250k route again²².
• GV properties cannot be let short-term (Airbnb-type platforms). Long-term letting is allowed^22,23.
• Listed-building restoration is a second €250k route. We exclude it by policy (see section 4).

2.8 What could change (read this box carefully)

2.9 The supply gap: how long will strong demand for new housing last?

The facts

• Building collapsed. Dwellings in new residential building permits fell from 174,400 (2005) to 5,500 (2015). They recovered only to 41,700 (2024) and 31,900 (2025)²⁸. The census shows 915,138 dwellings built in 2001–2010 (about 91.5k a year) but only 173,624 in 2011–2021²⁹.
• Two different measures: permits (Eurostat) count dwellings authorised in a year; the census counts dwellings standing in 2021 by the period in which they were built. They are shown together for scale only. All gap calculations below use the Eurostat permit series (2005–2025), lagged two years.
• The stock is old. 51.3% of Greece's 6,596,761 dwellings (and 53.5% in Attica) were built before 1981. Only 2.6% (Attica 2.2%) were built in 2011–2021²⁹. (8 dwellings nationally and 6 in Attica are not allocated to a period.)
• Independent estimates agree there is a gap. Piraeus Bank estimates a shortage of about 212,000 dwellings built up in 2012–2021 alone³⁰. NBG estimated excess demand of about 30,000 dwellings a year in 2023–24³¹. Both use their own estimates of construction, not the Eurostat series, so they are independent cross-checks rather than inputs. The IMF notes labour and capacity constraints that limit how fast building can grow³².
• Honest counterpoint: the 2021 census also counted 2.28 million unoccupied dwellings (34.5%; Attica 24.3%)²⁹. Many are holiday homes, village houses or buildings in poor condition. Some can return to the market, so our model includes a "vacant-home reactivation" scenario.

The model (transparent; all calculations in this study's financial model)

Step 1 – completions. Completions in year t are taken as dwellings permitted in year t−2^A1. This proxy matches the census well: 178.1k permitted in 2009–2019 against 173.6k actually built in 2011–2021 (ratio 0.97). Completions 2010–2025 total 335.9k.

Step 2 – annual need = household formation + replacement of obsolete stock + non-resident / second-home / short-term-rental demand^A2:

Step 3 – formula. Cumulative shortfall (2010–2025) = Σ (annual need − completions) = 16 × need − 335.9k

The central estimate is consistent with Piraeus Bank's 212k for 2012–2021 alone³⁰.

Step 4 – years to close the gap. Year by year from 1 Jan 2026: shortfall + need − completions − vacant reactivation. Completions in 2026 and 2027 are fixed by the permits already issued in 2024 and 2025 (41.7k and 31.9k); the scenario build rate applies from 2028. The same calculation drives the projection chart.

What this means for investors: our pilot lasts about 24 months. Even in the most optimistic case, the shortage outlasts it. However, a national housing shortage does not by itself guarantee demand for €250k Golden Visa units, which depends mainly on foreign buyers and the GV rules (section 12).

1. Start with one pilot conversion project. Choose a whole commercial building in central Athens or Piraeus, with a peak equity need of about €1.40m–€1.44m.
2. Choose the specification before buying, and keep cost and price matched^A11. Default to Average (works ≤ €1,100/m² excl. VAT, units at €250,000). Choose Premium (works ≤ €1,600/m², 15 units of 50 m² at €250,000) only if comparable design-led GV units in the area are selling at €5,000/m² or more. Never combine the Premium budget with Average prices.
3. Set clear go/no-go conditions before signing: for a building like the worked example, purchase price ≤ about €1.2m (breakeven purchase price €1,637,000 Average, €1,554,000 Premium); a fixed-price conversion contract within the scenario's budget (breakeven works €1,508/m² Average, €1,930/m² Premium); a credible off-plan price list at ≥ €250,000 per unit; due diligence passed; and a clear view of the final 2027 transfer-tax law.
4. Expand after delivery: use the pilot's audited results to decide on project 2.

7.1 Key assumptions (both scenarios)

• Purchase: €1,200,000 (lowest asking price) + transfer tax 3.09% + about 2% notary, lawyer and land registry costs + 2% buyer's broker commission plus 24% VAT (€29,760)^A6,52, + €25,000 due diligence. Same in both scenarios.
• Units (sized so every unit is exactly €250,000): Average 13 apartments of about 58 m² gross (755 m² above ground ÷ 13); Premium 15 apartments of 50 m² gross (€250,000 ÷ €5,000/m² = 50 m²; 750 of the 755 m² used, 5 m² slack)^A5. The 85 m² basement becomes storage and technical rooms in both.
• Two matched scenarios^A11: each scenario pairs a works budget with the sale price that specification can command, so we never build at designer cost and sell at an average price.
  1. - Average: works €1,100/m² above ground, inside the €700–1,200/m² full-renovation band quoted by Athens architects^33A3; 13 × 58 m² units at €250,000 (≈ €4,310/m²)^A5; rent €16/m²/month^A8.
  2. - Premium: design-led works €1,600/m², inside a €1,400–1,800/m² design-led band (Athens architects quote €1,200–1,600+/m² for design-led work³³)^A3; 15 × 50 m² units at €250,000 (€5,000/m²; sensitivity €5,200–5,500/m², i.e. €260,000–€275,000 per unit)^A5; rent €20/m²/month^A8.
  3. - Basement €500/m² in both. All works costs excl. VAT.
• VAT 24% on works is treated as a cost (non-recoverable)^A4. Because contingency (12%) and project management (4%) are calculated on works including VAT, the full VAT impact is €243,043 of extra cost for Average and €348,139 for Premium (€180,095 and €257,970 less net profit). If a tax adviser confirmed that all of it could be recovered, net profit would be €528,637 (Average) and €539,844 (Premium). This is not assumed.
• Studies and permits 9% of works excl. VAT; contingency 12% and project management and independent site supervision 4%, both of works incl. VAT. The contingency is paid in and treated as spent in the base case; any unused part returns to profit^A12.
• Sales: sold off-plan from permit issue (month 6) on a Dubai-style payment plan^A10: 10% deposit (month 6), 10% at the preliminary agreement (month 7), 40% in equal monthly instalments during works (months 6–17), and 40% at completion and final contracts (months 21–22). Collected before completion: €1,950,000 (Average), €2,250,000 (Premium). Marketing and sales costs 2% of revenue, spread over months 6–22; €1,500 per unit for certificates and sale documents at the final contracts.
• Company costs: IKE accounting, audit, legal and bank €1,000/month for the whole 24 months; ENFIA, insurance and utilities €1,000/month from acquisition (month 3) to the end (21 months)^A6.
• Tax: Greek corporate tax 22% on profit; 5% withholding on dividends³⁵. Funded 100% by equity, with no bank debt.
• Timeline (both scenarios): due diligence months 0–3 → permits 3–6 → works 6–18 → completion and legal change of use 18–20 → final sale contracts months 21–22 → tax and distribution month 24: 24 months in total, the owner's maximum cycle^A5. Off-plan sales run from month 6.

7.2 Are €4,310 and €5,000/m² realistic for 58 m² and 50 m² units? (honest check)

• Average = the Golden Visa floor, not the market average. The €250,000 Golden Visa floor needs €4,310/m² at 58 m². Because the owner requires every unit to be GV-eligible, the Average scenario is priced exactly at €250,000, not at the Spitogatos Athens Centre new-build average of about €4,000/m²⁴⁵ (which would give about €232,000 per unit, below the floor). So "Average" describes the specification, while its price is about 7.7% above the new-build average, with no buffer: any discount below €250,000 takes the unit out of the Golden Visa, and disguised discounts are being targeted²⁷.
• Premium at €5,000/m² (€250,000 for 50 m²) is also exactly on the €250,000 floor, with no price buffer either. Its €/m² is above the Spitogatos new-build average⁴⁵, above the Deloitte / Prodexpo Athens new-build figure of about €4,360/m²⁴⁶ and the xe.gr new-build median asking price of about €4,407/m² (accessed 28 Oct 2026)⁴⁷. It sits in the upper part of an operating Golden Visa conversion project in Metaxourgeio, which is asking €3,776–5,198/m², including a 57.3 m² unit at €250,000 (€4,363/m²)³⁴. The €5,200–5,500/m² sensitivity is at or just above that project's highest unit.
• The ordinary local market of old, unrenovated properties (not renovated or new-build stock) is much lower: xe.gr Athens average €3,087/m² (≤80 m², Q3 2026) and Spitogatos Athens-centre average €2,439/m² (Q3 2025)³.

Conclusion: both prices depend on Golden Visa buyers. Average needs only a genuine new-build finish to reach €250,000. Premium needs a clearly design-led product and location to reach €5,000/m² on smaller units; the evidence for that price is thinner. Neither has room for discounts. The units are not priced against the old, unrenovated stock: if Golden Visa demand weakens, the fallback is to hold and let the units (section 7.4) until they can be sold at renovated / new-build prices.

7.3 Indicative P&L (both scenarios, from this study's financial model)

Indicative. All property prices, costs and projections shown here are indicative, subject to full due diligence, and may change.

The cash-flow chart and this table come from the same monthly calculation: the final cumulative cash position in month 24 equals the net profit, and the lowest point equals the peak equity. Because buyers pay 60% of the price during construction^A10, the equity peak comes at month 5, just before off-plan collections start; without off-plan sales the peak equity would be €2,689,133 (Average) and €3,266,104 (Premium).

Premium spends €589,971 more to earn €500,000 more revenue (two more units of €250,000), so at its €5,000/m² base it makes €66,668 less net profit than Average on slightly more equity.

Average: €348,542 net profit on €1,403,410 equity · 24.8% ROI · 23.8% IRR. Premium: €281,874 on €1,437,385 · 19.6% ROI · 17.1% IRR. Both over 24 months.

An earlier internal estimate for a larger generic project (about €3.19m cost, €5.25m GDV, about €1.14m net) does not apply to this building. The figures above were recomputed from scratch.

Contingency: budgeted and paid in, but returned as profit if it is not needed^A12. The base case above treats the full 12% contingency as spent: €129,902 (Average) and €186,074 (Premium). Investors still commit this money, because overruns are common, but it is a reserve, not a sunk cost. Whatever is not spent was never a real cost, so it is removed from total development cost. Profit before tax (gross) rises by the full unspent amount. Net profit rises by less, because the extra profit is taxed in the same way as the rest: 22% corporate tax, then 5% withholding on the dividend, leaving about 74 cents of each euro for investors. Peak equity is unchanged, because the contingency is paid in either way.

Indicative. All property prices, costs and projections shown here are indicative, subject to full due diligence, and may change.

Margin on cost if the contingency is not needed: 22.7% (Average) and 17.8% (Premium), against 16.9% and 11.3% in the base case.

Upside not in the base case: ~210 m² of unused building rights^A13. The Metaxourgeio building is reported to have about 210 m² of unused building rights⁴². The listing does not say how this figure was calculated.

How it works. Unused building rights are the floor area the local zoning still allows on the plot (the plot's building coefficient), minus the floor area already built. They can be used by adding a floor or an extension, with a building permit under today's rules. This is not a Golden Visa or conversion benefit. In 2025 the Council of State struck down the New Building Code bonuses that let permits exceed local zoning (extra floor area and height in exchange for energy upgrades and green space), and ruled that mezzanines and the 35 m² rooftop room must now count towards floor area. Law 5197/2025 protects only projects legally started by 11 Dec 2024^15,49. If any part of the 210 m² relies on those bonuses, that part is gone.

The Golden Visa catch. The €250,000 route applies to property whose main spaces are converted to residential use^21,24. The published rules state that rooftop additions, extensions and new buildings on the same plot qualify for the €250,000 route only for industrial buildings and listed buildings^50,51. They say nothing about additions to an ordinary commercial (office or retail) building. New floor area built as residential from the start is not, on the face of the rules, a "change of use". For a commercial building, it is not confirmed that the extra units qualify for €250,000. If they do not, a Golden Visa buyer in Athens would need the standard €800,000 threshold²¹. The extra units would then have to be sold to ordinary buyers, at prices this study does not model.

The upside counts only if all of these prerequisites are met:

1. Rights legally confirmed: a planning engineer confirms from the zoning that the ~210 m² comes from the plot's own building coefficient and height limit, not from the struck-down bonuses⁴⁹. (Confirmed requirement.)
2. Structure: a structural engineer confirms the 1960s frame can carry the extra floor, including any strengthening and its cost. (Our inference: standard engineering check, not a quoted rule.)
3. Golden Visa eligibility of the extra units: a written opinion from Greek immigration lawyers, ideally confirmed with the Ministry of Migration and Asylum, that a rooftop addition to a commercial building being converted counts for the €250,000 route. Alternatively, confirmation that the building is legally classed as industrial. Otherwise the units do not qualify at €250,000^50,51. (Not confirmed; this is the largest uncertainty.)
4. Permit and timeline: the addition goes into the same building permit or revision, and the extra works fit into the 24-month cycle. (Model assumption.)

If they are met, the extra area holds 3 Average units of 58 m² (174 m²) or 4 Premium units of 50 m² (200 m²), built at the same works cost per m² as the scenario. Purchase price is unchanged.

Indicative. All property prices, costs and projections shown here are indicative, subject to full due diligence, and may change.

The probabilities are illustrative, not an estimate. Given prerequisite 3, the lower end is the more prudent reading for a commercial building: the real chance is known only after the legal and structural checks in due diligence (section 11). Probability-weighted net = base net + chance × extra net profit. New floor area may cost more per m² than conversion; the breakeven line shows how much it could cost before the extra units stop adding profit. The upside is never used to justify the purchase price.

Off-plan collections are already in both scenarios. Their main risk is buyer protection: deposits and instalments should sit in escrow or be backed by a bank guarantee, which Greek lawyers must structure^A10.

7.4 Hold-and-rent alternative (both scenarios; indicative)

Instead of selling, the IKE keeps all or part of the apartments (13 in Average, 15 in Premium) and lets them on long-term residential leases. A lease for a main home runs at least 3 years by law (Law 1703/1987)⁴³. Short-term letting is not an option here: new short-term-rental registrations are frozen in Athens districts 1–3, which include Metaxourgeio, until 31 Dec 2026⁴³.

Definition used throughout: Gross ROI = annual gross rent (all held units let at the asking rent, before vacancy, costs and tax) ÷ total development cost of the held units. No debt is assumed, so the total development cost is also the equity tied up in the held units.

Rent (matched to each specification)^A8. Average €16/m²/month (€928 per unit); Premium €20/m²/month (€1,000 per unit). Cross-check: the xe.gr new-build median asking rent is about €17.23/m² (accessed 28 Oct 2026)⁴⁷. All-homes averages for central Athens are much lower (about €12/m², mostly older stock)^43,44. The Premium €20/m² is above the new-build median and needs a genuinely design-led product; it is an owner assumption, not market evidence. These are asking rents, not agreed rents. Other rents are shown as sensitivity.

Cost of the held units (100% hold). Start from each scenario's total cost and remove the costs that exist only because units are sold: marketing and sales costs (€65,000 Average, €75,000 Premium), unit sale documents (€19,500 and €22,500), and IKE and holding costs after completion (€8,000). There are no off-plan sales; the development period ends at completion and legal change of use (month 20). Add a letting fee of one month's rent per unit^A9. Result: €2,699,197 (Average) and €3,279,104 (Premium).

Partial hold (about half sold). The sold units are sold off-plan on the same 24-month timeline; shared cost is split by number of units. Average sells 7 and holds 6: the sold units make €253,275 before tax and the held units cost €1,249,476. Premium sells 8 and holds 7: €202,878 and €1,533,982.

Net yield (sensitivity only): 5.0% vacancy, management and maintenance 10.0% of collected rent, building holding costs €12,000 a year (pro rata for the partial case) and IKE running costs €12,000 a year^A9. Before 22% corporate tax and dividend withholding tax³⁵.

Honest read.

• Holding returns about 5.4% gross (3.7% net) for Average and 5.5% gross (4.0% net) for Premium. Selling returns 24.8% and 19.6% on equity after tax over 24 months. In both scenarios selling is clearly better; holding is a low-yield fallback.
• A unit yields 4.5% (Average) and 4.8% (Premium) gross on its sale value. That is above the 3.3–4.0% indicative gross yields reported for Athens areas (all homes)⁴³, because we assume new-build-quality rents.
• Any case for holding rests on rent and capital growth, which this study does not model. Rents in Greece rose 5.9% in the year to September 2026⁴³; past growth does not guarantee future growth.
• Where holding can make sense: as a fallback if the Golden Visa €250k route is narrowed or closed (section 12), or for investors who want a long-term income asset in euros and accept a low yield. Long-term letting is allowed for Golden Visa property^22,23, but a sitting tenant on a 3-year lease narrows the buyer pool.

Total: 24 months in the base case of both scenarios (the owner's maximum cycle) and 30 months in the 6-month delay test.

Team: partner civil/structural engineers and architect · Greek property lawyer · chartered auditor · tax adviser · Paschalis Filios coordinating.

Checklist (all items must be cleared before purchase):

1. Title: full title search (land registry / Hellenic Cadastre), chain of ownership, seller's authority, and any co-owner or inheritance issues.
2. Zoning and land use: residential use permitted in the zone; local land-use decree; building coefficient and remaining building rights (legally confirmed). Confirm the building is not listed or preserved and not in a restricted heritage zone (important in Metaxourgeio).
3. Building permits and illegal works: original permit and plans match the building; any illegal or arbitrary works identified and legalised (or legalisable) at a known cost.
4. Structure: survey of the 1960s–1980s frame; seismic assessment; core tests where needed; cost of any strengthening.
5. Change-of-use feasibility: confirm that the architectural layout meets residential rules (light, ventilation, heights, fire escape, lift). Map the path and timetable for the change-of-use permit and the engineer's certificate that the GV buyer will need.
6. Energy: current energy certificate; upgrade path to a modern class; MEP condition.
7. Encumbrances: mortgages, seizures, leases (vacant possession), easements, litigation.
8. Taxes and dues: ENFIA and municipal dues paid; no tax liens; tax certificates for the transfer; objective value.
9. Financials: fixed-price builder offers (at least 2–3), builder references, insurance, performance guarantees; the auditor's review of the budget.
10. Market check: comparable GV conversion prices and a sales plan; buyer demand after the 2027 transfer-tax law.